A level 1 was issued for the south Iberian Peninsula mainly for tornadoes.
Iberian Peninsula
An intense short-wave trough and associated strong mid-level jet streak will enter Iberia on Thursday afternoon, leading to strong QG forcing. A tongue of rich low-level moisture will spread into southern Portugal and Spain ahead of this trough. Lapse rates are rather poor and CAPE is very limited.
However, daytime heating may result in CAPE during the afternoon hours across southern Portugal and Spain, and some thunderstorms may develop. Storm that form may organize into multicells given the strong vertical wind shear exceeding 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Additionally, some mesocyclones may form. These may produce an isolated tornado given the strong low-level shear. Limiting factor will be the weak CAPE. During the night hours, low-level cooling will result in decaying storms.
Fonte: ESTOFEX
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